BJP: Gujarat election results: Why BJP got more votes, but fewer seats | India News
Slice and cube the Gujarat outcomes alongside rural-urban axes, reserved and unreserved seats or by areas, and the seat tallies would convey the impression that there are sharp variations in the way in which totally different elements or sections of the state voted. But, take a look at the vote shares and a considerably stunning sample emerges. Throughout all of those divides, the BJP’s vote share is increased than that of the Congress.
That is true for each area, it’s true for the agricultural/rurban/city classes and whether or not it’s SC or ST reserved seats or unreserved seats. In fact, the hole between the vote shares of the 2 events would differ in every of those circumstances, however in each certainly one of them Congress is behind BJP.
That’s fairly a shock given the seat shares the place, for example, Congress has trounced the ruling social gathering within the rural areas. Certainly, for the state as a complete BJP’s vote share of 49.1% in these polls is a slight enchancment over the 47.9% it achieved in 2012 although an enormous comedown if one have been to match it with the 59.1% share it bought within the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
Congress too improved its vote share from 38.9% 5 years in the past to 41.four% this time.
However that also meant it was almost eight proportion factors behind BJP, solely a slightly smaller lead in votes than in 2012. In a bipolar election, a niche of that magnitude ought to usually lead to a reasonably large win for the main social gathering, as in actual fact occurred final time.
But, this time spherical, the battle grew to become agonizingly shut for BJP, which completed simply seven seats above the bulk mark. What explains this incapacity of BJP to transform its lead in votes right into a extra sizeable lead in seats?
One clear cause was that a lot of this vote share got here from build up enormous wins within the cities. Within the 33 city seats it received, its common successful margin was about 47,400.
Equally, it received its rurban seats by margins of over 26,000 votes on common. Spectacular as these wins have been, it was an instance of a surplus of votes probably not including to seats.
The Congress votes have been rather more evenly unfold. In consequence it was capable of win extra seats than BJP even in areas the place its vote share was truly decrease. Essentially the most dramatic illustration of this was Saurashtra, the place BJP received simply 23 seats in comparison with 30 for Congress although its vote share of 45.9% was increased than the 45.5% received by Congress.
North Gujarat was not too totally different both. Whereas BJP had a 45.1% vote share in comparison with Congress’s 44.9%, it received fewer seats — 14 to 17.
By the way, this was the one area the place Congress had bettered BJP’s vote share in 2012 however the seat tallies have been nearly similar to the present ones. Contemplating how a lot had been made from the Patidar anger in opposition to BJP in these elections, it’s ironical that the 52 seats by which Patidars type a big chunk of the citizens have been those by which BJP received a majority of votes (50.three%) and of seats (28).
Nevertheless, this was additionally reflecting a regional variation in the way in which the Patidar dominated seats behaved. Of the 28 Patidar seats BJP received, solely 9 have been from the Kutch-Saurashtra area. In distinction, 17 of the 23 seats received by the Congress the place the neighborhood is dominant got here from Kutch-Saurashtra.
These minor variations however, what would give BJP cause to cheer in what grew to become a better election than it will have preferred is the truth that it completed forward on votes in each slice of Gujarat.